Fixed Income Leaders Summit: Emerging Markets 2020
March 09 - 11, 2020
The Ritz-Carlton Westchester, White Plains, NY
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11TH, 2020: DAY TWO – EMERGING MARKET SELECTION AND OUTLOOK
7:00 am - 8:00 am REGISTRATION AND BREAKFAST
8:00 am - 8:10 am CHAIRPERSON’S RECAP OF DAY ONE
8:10 am - 8:50 am KEYNOTE PANEL: Working Out How China Fits Into and Influences Emerging Markets
China’s giant economy plays a major role in the global macro environment, while also bringing secondary effects on other Asian EMs and the EM sector as a whole. More than any other EM, local expertise is vital for understanding Chinese liquidity, providers, and how to get in and out.
• Describe how the ruling Communist Party will rely on economic policies to stay in power
• Recognize global leadership and development initiatives, such as BRI, as underlying drivers for policy thinking
• Prioritize local expertise in Hong Kong and mainland China
Eric Stein
Portfolio Manager and Co-Director, Global Fixed Income GroupEaton Vance Management
8:50 am - 9:30 am KEYNOTE PRESENTATION: Facing the Changing Vulnerabilities of Sovereign Credit – and the Risk of Contagion
Some countries use barriers and protections to deal with sovereign vulnerabilities as they grow more pronounced. Why has recent contagion risk changed, and is that likely to stay in place for the next 12-18 months?
•Map vulnerabilities by macro environments and by countries
•Emphasize how liquidity problems in Argentina and Turkey did not lead to broader-scaled problems in the last 1-2 years
•Grapple with why this change occurred and whether it is likely to last further
Pablo Goldberg
Managing Director & Head of Research / Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt TeamBlackRock
9:30 am - 10:10 am NETWORKING BREAK
10:10 am - 10:30 am SPONSORED PRESENTATION
10:30 am - 11:10 am PANEL: Profiting From Volatility and Export Limitations Due To Trade Wars
Trade wars hurt the ability of countries to pay back debt in full, while also limiting exports. Investors in debt are more likely to be impacted - but there are ways you can prepare and protect yourself.
• Prepare rapid response kits for swings due to tariffs
• Re-examine holdings in light of new volatility
• Plan for outsized effects on fixed income markets
11:10 am - 11:30 am SPONSORED KEYNOTE
11:30 am - 12:10 pm PANEL: Analyzing Opportunities in Emerging Market Infrastructure
Infrastructure debt is a compelling asset class, with some of the best risk-adjusted returns in the EM sector. It’s politically attractive, with less regulation and less of a block on ability to repay. Yet asset managers typically aren’t set up to look at infrastructure, and may let key opportunities pass them by.
•Base estimates on the credit and cash flow of each infrastructure project
•Find appropriate public market debt instruments
•Distinguish between how much of your EM portfolio is state-owned or non-state-owned
12:10 pm - 1:10 pm Lunch
TRACK A: LATIN AMERICA STRATEGY
1:10 pm - 1:50 pm PANEL: Correcting for Local Bias in Latin AmericaSmaller Latin American countries can be seen as “niche” and require a lot of educational hand-holding for clients to feel comfortable investing. Country bias can make it hard for even large clients to gain access in local markets where personal relationships are long-established.
•Internalize that people tend to overconcentrate on local economies and are more reactive than proactive
•Capture assets and get the best pricing internationally when investment capacity is small
•Navigate advances when products are basic for U.S.-based investors but sophisticated for locals
TRACK B: FRONTIER MARKETS
1:10 pm - 1:50 pm PANEL: Taking the Necessary Steps for Long-Term Investments in Frontier MarketsFrontier markets are expected to advance to become emerging markets, yet in practice the categories must be treated very differently. They typically see a lot of trade finance and bonded direct deals, with private equity being rarer. What are the most important risk factors that you must confront in these countries?
•Quantify country risks and currency risks for regions facing political upheaval and currency devaluation
•Emphasize educating a smaller pool of investors for a better return profile
•Cope with the reality of fast change
1:50 pm - 2:10 pm SPONSORED PRESENTATION
1:50 pm - 2:10 pm SPONSORED PRESENTATION
2:10 pm - 2:50 pm PANEL: Niche No More: Debunking Myths in EM Corporates
Speakers:
Christina Ronac Head, Emerging Markets Credit Research HSBC Asset Management
Luis Olguin Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt NN Investment Partners
Robert Schmieder Senior Analyst, EM Fixed Income Van Eck
Sarah Leshner Carvalho Emerging Markets Fixed Income Investor Capital Group
Christina Ronac Head, Emerging Markets Credit Research HSBC Asset Management
Luis Olguin Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt NN Investment Partners
Robert Schmieder Senior Analyst, EM Fixed Income Van Eck
Sarah Leshner Carvalho Emerging Markets Fixed Income Investor Capital Group
There are important lessons to be found through gauging the risks and rewards of EM corporates compared to sovereigns and U.S. high yield. The EM corporate external bond market is now over $2 trillion U.S. yet still gets overlooked. What are the reasons for this?
•Keep up with the latest developments with AMLO and Pemex
•Evaluate the outlook for Argentina
•Understand the asset class, from internal team dynamics to how indices are defined
•Compare the liquidity of various asset classes and default rates
Sarah Leshner Carvalho
Emerging Markets Fixed Income InvestorCapital Group
2:10 pm - 2:50 pm PANEL: Construct Appropriate Nation-Specific Approaches for Frontier Markets
Frontier markets are typically not covered in EM local indices and require an entirely different strategy. They may be easier to trade, but you must take into account many issues of logistics and execution.
•Prepare for challenges in foreign exchange conversion
•Build a deep bench of knowledge to extract value
•Anticipate challenges with foreign currency conversion
2:50 pm - 3:30 pm NETWORKING BREAK
3:30 pm - 4:10 pm PANEL: Following EM Geopolitical Hotspots While Keeping All Options Open
Speakers:
Jean-Dominique Bütikofer Head Emerging Markets Voya Investment Management
Mila Skulkina Portfolio Manager, EM Credit Lord Abbett
Scott Grimberg Portfolio Manager, Global & Emerging Markets Fixed Income CalPERS
Eric Fine Portfolio Manager/Managing Director Van Eck Global
Waleed Shoukry Portfolio Manager – Global Emerging Markets Debt United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund
Jean-Dominique Bütikofer Head Emerging Markets Voya Investment Management
Mila Skulkina Portfolio Manager, EM Credit Lord Abbett
Scott Grimberg Portfolio Manager, Global & Emerging Markets Fixed Income CalPERS
Eric Fine Portfolio Manager/Managing Director Van Eck Global
Waleed Shoukry Portfolio Manager – Global Emerging Markets Debt United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund
From Russian sanctions to Middle Eastern unrest to the weakening of democracy in Turkey and Venezuela, and the rise of nationalist strongman leaders worldwide, political risks will always have an impact on your regional FI portfolio. If you know the strategic political objectives of EM governments, you should be able to purchase securities that match those. In that case, the government is more likely to support those companies so it has the werewithal to repay its needs.
•Determine whether you are willing to take on sovereign risk
•Recap the most concerning geopolitical challenges in EM regions
•Recognize trends in liquidity driven by external politics
•Mitigate exposure to troubled regions
Waleed Shoukry
Portfolio Manager – Global Emerging Markets DebtUnited Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund
4:10 pm - 4:50 pm PRESENTATION: Recognizing New Liquidity Partnership Opportunities
When European banks pulled out of EM countries, the broker dealer community there shrank as well, and additionally faces tougher regulations in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Yet the EM asset class itself has grown, leaving fewer broker dealers to divide up the pile. How can this be an advantage for your partnership strategy?
•Map out opportunities for assets that are left
•Empower decision-making now that the bank pullouts have made liquidity worse
•Line up as many options as possible for sourcing liquidity
