Fixed Income Leaders Summit: Emerging Markets 2020

March 09 - 11, 2020

The Ritz-Carlton Westchester, White Plains, NY

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11TH, 2020: DAY TWO – EMERGING MARKET SELECTION AND OUTLOOK

7:00 am - 8:00 am REGISTRATION AND BREAKFAST

8:00 am - 8:10 am CHAIRPERSON’S RECAP OF DAY ONE

China’s giant economy plays a major role in the global macro environment, while also bringing secondary effects on other Asian EMs and the EM sector as a whole.  More than any other EM, local expertise is vital for understanding Chinese liquidity, providers, and how to get in and out.  

• Describe how the ruling Communist Party will rely on economic policies to stay in power
• Recognize global leadership and development initiatives, such as BRI, as underlying drivers for policy thinking
• Prioritize local expertise in Hong Kong and mainland China

Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, EM Managed Debt Funds at Van Eck

Natalia Gurushina

Chief Economist, EM Managed Debt Funds
Van Eck

Sarvjeev Sidhu, Head, Emerging Markets Strategy at Aegon Asset Management

Sarvjeev Sidhu

Head, Emerging Markets Strategy
Aegon Asset Management

Eric Stein, Portfolio Manager and Co-Director, Global Fixed Income Group at Eaton Vance Management

Eric Stein

Portfolio Manager and Co-Director, Global Fixed Income Group
Eaton Vance Management

Some countries use barriers and protections to deal with sovereign vulnerabilities as they grow more pronounced.  Why has recent contagion risk changed, and is that likely to stay in place for the next 12-18 months?

•Map vulnerabilities by macro environments and by countries
•Emphasize how liquidity problems in Argentina and Turkey did not lead to broader-scaled problems in the last 1-2 years
•Grapple with why this change occurred and whether it is likely to last further

Eylem Senyuz, Director, Global Macro Strategist at SunTrust

Eylem Senyuz

Director, Global Macro Strategist
SunTrust

Jean-Dominique Bütikofer, Head Emerging Markets at Voya Investment Management

Jean-Dominique Bütikofer

Head Emerging Markets
Voya Investment Management

Pablo Goldberg, Managing Director & Head of Research / Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt Team at BlackRock

Pablo Goldberg

Managing Director & Head of Research / Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt Team
BlackRock

9:30 am - 10:10 am NETWORKING BREAK

10:10 am - 10:30 am SPONSORED PRESENTATION

10:30 am - 11:10 am PANEL: Profiting From Volatility and Export Limitations Due To Trade Wars

Trade wars hurt the ability of countries to pay back debt in full, while also limiting exports.  Investors in debt are more likely to be impacted - but there are ways you can prepare and protect yourself.  

• Prepare rapid response kits for swings due to tariffs
• Re-examine holdings in light of new volatility
• Plan for outsized effects on fixed income markets

Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Managing Principal at MRV Associates

Mayra Rodriguez Valladares

Managing Principal
MRV Associates

Nancy Davis, Managing Partner and CIO at Quadratic Capital Management

Nancy Davis

Managing Partner and CIO
Quadratic Capital Management

11:10 am - 11:30 am SPONSORED KEYNOTE

Infrastructure debt is a compelling asset class, with some of the best risk-adjusted returns in the EM sector.  It’s politically attractive, with less regulation and less of a block on ability to repay.  Yet asset managers typically aren’t set up to look at infrastructure, and may let key opportunities pass them by.
  
•Base estimates on the credit and cash flow of each infrastructure project
•Find appropriate public market debt instruments
•Distinguish between how much of your EM portfolio is state-owned or non-state-owned 

Susan Wisialko, Partner at The Global Infrastructure Fund

Susan Wisialko

Partner
The Global Infrastructure Fund

Nikola Simic, Director at Blackrock Infrastructure Debt

Nikola Simic

Director
Blackrock Infrastructure Debt

Violet Osterberg, Managing Director, Emerging Markets Fixed Income at Pacific Life Insurance

Violet Osterberg

Managing Director, Emerging Markets Fixed Income
Pacific Life Insurance

12:10 pm - 1:10 pm Lunch

Smaller Latin American countries can be seen as “niche” and require a lot of educational hand-holding for clients to feel comfortable investing.  Country bias can make it hard for even large clients to gain access in local markets where personal relationships are long-established.  

•Internalize that people tend to overconcentrate on local economies and are more reactive than proactive
•Capture assets and get the best pricing internationally when investment capacity is small
•Navigate advances when products are basic for U.S.-based investors but sophisticated for locals

Daniel Simon, Portfolio Manager at Newfoundland Capital Management

Daniel Simon

Portfolio Manager
Newfoundland Capital Management

Alejandro Padilla, Head Strategist of Fixed-income, FX and Commodities at Banorte

Alejandro Padilla

Head Strategist of Fixed-income, FX and Commodities
Banorte

Jacinto Diaz Hache, Managing Partner at Peso Capital

Jacinto Diaz Hache

Managing Partner
Peso Capital

Alejandro Cuadrado, Global Head, FX, Managing Director at BBVA

Alejandro Cuadrado

Global Head, FX, Managing Director
BBVA

TRACK B: FRONTIER MARKETS

1:10 pm - 1:50 pm PANEL: Taking the Necessary Steps for Long-Term Investments in Frontier Markets
Frontier markets are expected to advance to become emerging markets, yet in practice the categories must be treated very differently.  They typically see a lot of trade finance and bonded direct deals, with private equity being rarer.  What are the most important risk factors that you must confront in these countries?

•Quantify country risks and currency risks for regions facing political upheaval and currency devaluation
•Emphasize educating a smaller pool of investors for a better return profile
•Cope with the reality of fast change

Yvette Babb, Senior Portfolio Mananger at NN Investment Partners

Yvette Babb

Senior Portfolio Mananger
NN Investment Partners

Sarvjeev Sidhu, Head, Emerging Markets Strategy at Aegon Asset Management

Sarvjeev Sidhu

Head, Emerging Markets Strategy
Aegon Asset Management

1:50 pm - 2:10 pm SPONSORED PRESENTATION

1:50 pm - 2:10 pm SPONSORED PRESENTATION

There are important lessons to be found through gauging the risks and rewards of EM corporates compared to sovereigns and U.S. high yield.  The EM corporate external bond market is now over $2 trillion U.S. yet still gets overlooked.  What are the reasons for this? 

•Keep up with the latest developments with AMLO and Pemex
•Evaluate the outlook for Argentina
•Understand the asset class, from internal team dynamics to how indices are defined
•Compare the liquidity of various asset classes and default rates

Christina Ronac, Head, Emerging Markets Credit Research at HSBC Asset Management

Christina Ronac

Head, Emerging Markets Credit Research
HSBC Asset Management

Luis Olguin, Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt at NN Investment Partners

Luis Olguin

Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market Debt
NN Investment Partners

Robert Schmieder, Senior Analyst, EM Fixed Income at Van Eck

Robert Schmieder

Senior Analyst, EM Fixed Income
Van Eck

Sarah Leshner Carvalho

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Investor
Capital Group

Frontier markets are typically not covered in EM local indices and require an entirely different strategy.  They may be easier to trade, but you must take into account many issues of logistics and execution.

•Prepare for challenges in foreign exchange conversion
•Build a deep bench of knowledge to extract value
•Anticipate challenges with foreign currency conversion

Michael O'Brien, Director of Global Trading at Eaton Vance Management

Michael O'Brien

Director of Global Trading
Eaton Vance Management

Kenneth Monahan, Senior Analyst at Greenwich Associates

Kenneth Monahan

Senior Analyst
Greenwich Associates

Stephanie Sanchez Kuong, Portfolio Manager at Enko Capital Management

Stephanie Sanchez Kuong

Portfolio Manager
Enko Capital Management

2:50 pm - 3:30 pm NETWORKING BREAK

From Russian sanctions to Middle Eastern unrest to the weakening of democracy in Turkey and Venezuela, and the rise of nationalist strongman leaders worldwide, political risks will always have an impact on your regional FI portfolio.  If you know the strategic political objectives of EM governments, you should be able to purchase securities that match those. In that case, the government is more likely to support those companies so it has the werewithal to repay its needs.  

•Determine whether you are willing to take on sovereign risk
•Recap the most concerning geopolitical challenges in EM regions
•Recognize trends in liquidity driven by external politics
•Mitigate exposure to troubled regions

Jean-Dominique Bütikofer, Head Emerging Markets at Voya Investment Management

Jean-Dominique Bütikofer

Head Emerging Markets
Voya Investment Management

Mila Skulkina, Portfolio Manager, EM Credit at Lord Abbett

Mila Skulkina

Portfolio Manager, EM Credit
Lord Abbett

Scott Grimberg, Portfolio Manager, Global & Emerging Markets Fixed Income at CalPERS

Scott Grimberg

Portfolio Manager, Global & Emerging Markets Fixed Income
CalPERS

Eric Fine, Portfolio Manager/Managing Director at Van Eck Global

Eric Fine

Portfolio Manager/Managing Director
Van Eck Global

Waleed Shoukry, Portfolio Manager – Global Emerging Markets Debt at United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund

Waleed Shoukry

Portfolio Manager – Global Emerging Markets Debt
United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund

4:10 pm - 4:50 pm PRESENTATION: Recognizing New Liquidity Partnership Opportunities

When European banks pulled out of EM countries, the broker dealer community there shrank as well, and additionally faces tougher regulations in the aftermath of the financial crisis.  Yet the EM asset class itself has grown, leaving fewer broker dealers to divide up the pile.  How can this be an advantage for your partnership strategy?

•Map out opportunities for assets that are left
•Empower decision-making now that the bank pullouts have made liquidity worse
•Line up as many options as possible for sourcing liquidity

4:50 pm - 4:50 pm CONFERENCE CONCLUDES

Our Sponsors: