TUESDAY, MARCH 10TH, 2020: DAY ONE – ANTICIPATING AND MANAGING RISK
Tuesday, March 10th, 2020
1:30 PM PRESENTATION: Anticipating a U.S. Recession’s Impact on Emerging Market Risk and Trading Opportunities
A recession looks increasingly likely for 2020, and if it does happen it will effect spreads on every credit risk asset class, including EMs, from a debt and equity standpoint as well as a currency standpoint. As a dip in the U.S. business cycle coincides with a U.S. / China trade war that was unthinkable just a few years ago, what will be the impact on global risk sentiment? And how will it interrelate with the unique national issues of each EM?
· Determine the likelihood of sudden stops
· Forecast new risks for commodity markets, currency markets, and credit markets
· Outline the region- and country-specific factors most likely to be inflamed by a recession